Friday, May 30, 2008

The Draft (after some rambling)

Its been a long time again, and yes, I'm still working on that long post. I got busy at work, then I got busy wanting to break my television and/or tear up my whole season ticket package. 11 in a row is REALLY ugly. 11 in a row this way is even uglier. Let's break it down:

No-hitter
Dominated by a rookie
Dominated by a fat veteran
Dominated by DiceK, ripped up the bullpen, still lost by 3
Greinke hit hard for first time
Three non-descript losses to Jays
Looked dead, brought back to life, dead again
Ripped your heart out
Back to getting dominated by a nobody

Its been terrible, folks, but I don't have to tell you that. I'm not going to bore you with analysis of the last few games, but what I am going to do is talk, for the very first time about the draft.

The Royals have the third pick in the draft, and it appears that no matter what, a marquee talent will be available. This year's draft is one of the deepest in recent memory. It appears to me that the top players in the draft are:

1. Tim Beckham
2. Pedro Alvarez
3. Buster Posey
4. Eric Hosmer
5. Justin Smoak

The Royals should have their pick of at least three of them, if not more if the Pirates decide to go cheap. My personal favorite of that group is Pedro Alvarez who I believe will not only be a plus plus hitter, but one who will contribute next season (provided he plays this year at all). I think the best course of action with him would be to draft him, sign him and buy him a first baseman's mitt from the start. All reports indicate that his defense at third is pretty decent, but not on the level of Alex Gordon and do you want to move Gordon anyway? I think that's probably not the best idea.

You'll notice a theme here in a minute. My choice 2 and 2A is Eric Hosmer and Justin Smoak. If you ask me tomorrow, those names might be reversed. They're both first baseman. Hosmer is a lefty with a sweet, sweet stroke, but he's 18 and there's an inherent risk with high school players. Smoak is a switch hitter with tons of power and a college pedigree. Both are believed to play excellent defense (although that doesn't matter all that much), and both are expected to be big time big league contributors. Smoak has been compared to Mark Teixeira before, and that's a comp that I could be on board with from my limited exposure to him. I've never seen Hosmer, so I'm just going off scouting reports here, but he has a higher upside than Smoak, but is a little riskier play. The comparison you hear often regarding Hosmer is Casey Kotchman but more advanced with more power. Either way I don't think the Royals can go wrong there.

Hosmer and Alvarez are both Boras clients, and I'm not sure who represents Smoak because if you're not Scott Boras, you typically aren't really known until after the draft. An interesting subplot surrounding Hosmer is that his good friend and teammate Adrian Nieto is looked at as a possible sandwich pick. Nieto is a switch hitting catcher with oogles of power. Yes, oogles. If the Royals take both Hosmer and Nieto, it might make signing both a less difficult task. However, I have a difficult time justifying taking a high school catcher who is not considered a sure thing (whatever that may be).

Those are my thoughts on the first round of the draft, but for much, much, much better coverage of all the Royals youngsters and a little draft talk, visit royaltower.blogspot.com. Tell Keith I sent you. He'll give you a free week on the site.

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